The excitement and anticipation surrounding the potential approval of a United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is reaching fever pitch.
Bloomberg Intelligence has estimated a 90% chance of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granting approval by January 10, 2024.
The approval could mark a significant turning point for Bitcoin’s price trajectory, potentially driving it to $100,000.
The news that BlackRock might be investing in a Bitcoin ETF has sent ripples through the crypto market, pushing the price of Bitcoin above $35,000.
This price level hasn’t been seen in nearly 18 months and stands in contrast to Ethereum’s 50% rise year-to-date.
Bitcoin’s recent price surge, with a 27% increase in October, indicates bullish market sentiment. This speculation reflects a broader belief that the United States is getting closer to embracing Bitcoin ETFs, aligning with the more progressive stance seen in Canada and Europe.
“Institutional demand for a spot Bitcoin ETF is stronger than ever before. For many institutions, it is a matter of when—not if—the SEC will approve a spot Bitcoin ETF,” said Diogo Mónica, President of Anchorage Digital.
The transition of Grayscale’s GBTC to an ETF is evidence of this growing interest, a move mirrored by several other firms like Fidelity, Invesco, and VanEck, all waiting for the SEC’s green light.
Given Bitcoin’s goal of reaching $100,000 within this context, the SEC’s proactive engagement, especially its choice not to challenge the outcome of a Grayscale case, indicates a positive outcome anticipated in January.
“The market was waiting to see if the SEC would appeal against the Grayscale verdict. Now that the SEC has chosen not to appeal and has actually been actively responding with edits or comments on the ETF applications, the probability of approval by the January 10 due date looks highly likely,” wrote Gautam Chhugani, Global Digital Senior Analyst at Bernstein.