The crypto market is experiencing increased uncertainty as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) nears a decision on spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
While initial expectations were positive, recent expert analyses have added a note of caution. As the market speculated on the possible outcomes, Bitcoin’s value dropped 6.5% in minutes, falling from $44,400 to $41,500. This drop saw over $1 billion worth of crypto liquidated from the market.
Bloomberg’s ETF expert, Eric Balchunas, tempered the general optimism by estimating that the ETFs have a 10% chance of being approved by the January 10 deadline.
His assessment is based on the possibility that the SEC will need more time for a thorough review, indicating a cautious rather than outright opposition to Bitcoin ETFs.
“I would say if we don’t see it in the next two weeks, it’s more because they need more time,” Balchunas said, emphasizing that a delay should not be interpreted as a final rejection.
His colleague, James Seyffart, added to the complication by anticipating potential approval orders between January 8 and January 10.
Matrixport, on the other hand, is more cautious, predicting that SEC approval may be delayed until the second quarter of 2024.
Their analysis takes into account a variety of regulatory challenges as well as the current political climate under SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s leadership.
The firm emphasized the influence of the SEC’s five voting commissioners, the majority of whom are Democrats, on decision-making.
With Gensler’s cautious approach to crypto, immediate approval appears unlikely. According to Matrixport, an underlying compliance or regulatory barrier could be resolved by Q2 2024.
In the event of a delay or rejection, Matrixport anticipates a significant impact on Bitcoin’s market value. Their forecast includes a 20% correction, with Bitcoin prices potentially falling to the $36,000 range.
Furthermore, the report predicts a rapid unwinding of market positions, especially in the $5.1 billion in additional perpetual long Bitcoin futures.
James Wilson is a crypto writer and researcher with over 5 years of experience in the industry. He is a graduate of the University of California, Berkeley, where he studied computer science and economics. After graduating, he worked as a software engineer at a major tech company before transitioning to a career in crypto.
