Polymarket, a well-known prediction platform, is under fire for allegedly manipulating a $7 million market. This market was about whether Ukraine would agree to a mineral deal with Trump before April.
It resolved as “Yes,” even though there was no official confirmation from either the U.S. or Ukraine. Users claim this is the biggest manipulation case in the platform’s history, accusing insiders of swaying the outcome.
The market rules stated that results would rely solely on official government sources. However, the resolution ignored this rule, leading to significant losses for many users. The crypto community is reacting with anger and distrust.
One user pointed out that two similar markets with less money ended with a “No” result, while this one involved over $7 million. A powerful participant allegedly used multiple accounts and 5 million UMA tokens to influence the vote.
Polymarket’s team responded in their Discord but did not offer refunds. They claimed the issue was not a platform failure but a unique situation they would work to prevent in the future. However, this explanation did not satisfy users who lost money.
This is not the first time Polymarket has faced accusations of insider manipulation. A crypto user named Folke Hermansen shared examples of past cases. He claimed that insiders often create vague rules and manipulate outcomes. One case involved a market about gold missing from Fort Knox, which resulted in a $3.5 million loss for those who bet otherwise.
Hermansen also noted that the UMA system, used to verify outcomes, is flawed. Two whales control over half the voting power, with one holding 7.5 million of the 20 million staked tokens. This creates a situation where large holders can sway results, making it hard for smaller users to challenge outcomes.
Additionally, challenging a market requires a bond of $750 USDC, which many smaller users cannot afford. This keeps control in the hands of a few. The anonymous nature of voting also allows manipulation to go unchecked. With users questioning the fairness of its markets, Polymarket’s credibility is at risk. Without changes, confidence in the platform could collapse.
