U.S. CPI Drops to 3% in June, Core Rate Lower Than Expected at 4.8%

The U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), experienced a decline in June, slipping to 3.0% on a year-over-year basis.

This figure, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is a decrease from May’s 4.0% and was also lower than the expected dip to 3.1%.

On a monthly basis, the CPI saw a slight increase of 0.2% in June, compared to 0.1% in May, but fell short of the projected 0.3%.

The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, also experienced a decline, dropping to 4.8% from the previous 5.3%.

This result was better than the anticipated 5.0%. On a monthly basis, the core CPI increased by 0.2% in June, showing a decrease from the 0.4% recorded in May and falling short of the expected 0.3%.

Following the release of the CPI report, the price of bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a modest rise, reaching $30,900. Bitcoin had been range-bound between $30,000 and $31,000 in recent days.

The reaction in the immediate aftermath of the report suggests that the market was responding to the news.

The June report highlights a continued decline in headline inflation, with the 3% figure marking a decrease from the peak of 9.1% observed in 2022.

Of particular interest to Federal Reserve policymakers is the shift in the core inflation rate, which finally moved to 4.8% from the previous 5.3% that had persistently remained above 5% this year.

Despite these developments, both the markets and the Federal Reserve anticipate another rate hike. Recent remarks from Fed speakers indicate a strong possibility of a rate increase when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets later this month.

The CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a 91.1% probability of the FOMC raising rates during the July 25-26 meeting.